Table 2. Summary of posterior distributions for Model 1 (baseline)

Parameter	Mean	SD	5% HDI	95% HDI	MCSE mean	MCSE SD	R-hat
β0 (intercept)	0.0101	0.0002	0.0098	0.0104	0.000002	0.000002	1.00
β1 (national-level momentum effect)	–0.4371	0.0014	–0.4395	–0.4349	0.000039	0.000028	1.00
σ (residual SD)	0.1059	0.0001	0.1058	0.1061	0.000003	0.000002	1.00

Note: This table reports the posterior summaries for the baseline specification (Model 1). The posterior mean and SD represent the central tendency and dispersion of the estimated parameters. The 5% and 95% highest density intervals (HDIs) define the central 90% credible region for each parameter. Monte Carlo standard errors (MCSE) assess the numerical accuracy of the posterior mean and SD estimates. R-hat values close to 1 indicate satisfactory convergence across Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains.