Table 3. Summary of posterior distributions for Model 2 (city-level effects)

Parameter	Mean	SD	5% HDI	95% HDI	MCSE mean	MCSE SD	R-hat
α[Seoul]	0.0105	0.0048	0.0027	0.0183	0.000118	0.000169	1.00
α[Busan]	0.0022	0.0049	–0.0062	0.0097	0.000182	0.000129	1.00
α[Daegu]	0.0022	0.0052	–0.0056	0.0109	0.000189	0.000133	1.00
α[Incheon]	0.0016	0.0050	–0.0064	0.0099	0.000183	0.000128	1.00
α[Gwangju]	–0.0058	0.0053	–0.0142	0.0027	0.000178	0.000122	1.00
α[Daejeon]	–0.0073	0.0056	–0.0165	0.0016	0.000174	0.000132	0.99
α[Ulsan]	–0.0049	0.0056	–0.0140	0.0039	0.000178	0.000127	1.00
β0 (intercept)	0.0101	0.0002	0.0098	0.0104	0.000003	0.000002	0.99
β1 (national-level momentum effect)	–0.4397	0.0421	–0.4462	–0.4328	0.000179	0.000127	1.00
σ (residual SD)	0.1059	0.0001	0.1057	0.1061	0.000000	0.000000	0.99
σα (city-level momentum effect SD)	0.0093	0.0048	0.0033	0.0155	0.000160	0.000113	1.00

Note: This table reports the posterior summaries for the Model 2. The posterior mean and SD represent the central tendency and dispersion of the estimated parameters. The 5% and 95% highest density intervals (HDIs) define the central 90% credible region for each parameter. Monte Carlo standard errors (MCSE) assess the numerical accuracy of the posterior mean and SD estimates. R-hat values close to 1 indicate satisfactory convergence across Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains. The parameter α[city] denotes the city-level momentum effect.